The Ithaca Bombers are comfortably in the field. Might they have played themselves into a top seed, even? Photo by Jeffrey Levy, d3photography.com

By Pat Coleman and Greg Thomas
D3sports.com

When you have a team such as Linfield in the bracket, and you expect them to be a high seed, you are going to have Linfield flying everywhere, or everyone flying to Linfield.

There is no reason to have Linfield confined to a bracket of only "island" teams or only the westernmost teams. It's not necessary. If someone has to fly to Linfield, then heck, send someone from the east coast.

Our mock selection committee met Saturday evening to do what we always do: Try to project what the NCAA committee will do, given the same information. We choose five at-large teams. We bracket them using the rules the committee has to use. 

And here we go.

• The selection show streams online (we will have a link on D3football.com) at 5:00 p.m. ET Sunday.

Here's how the process works for the at-large bids. The committee traditionally will sit down with a board that includes the top at-large team from each regional ranking, comparing the six teams head-to-head, then select one to put in the field. The committee considers the usual criteria: results vs. Division III teams, strength of schedule, results vs. regionally ranked teams, head-to-head results and results vs. common opponents. As we get closer to the end of the process, though, the committee can consider non-Division III games as well. And with just five spots and more than twice as many candidates, expect every piece of data possible to be used.

There is no Pool B bid this year, and no Pool B-eligible teams.

It's a long process, coming up with regional rankings, then trying to pick five at-large teams. We spent a good amoung of time hashing this out in audio format, on a Twitter space. We would highly recommend listening here, as we won't go through our process in quite as much detail here.

Great speaking with @d3football’s Pat Coleman and Greg Thomas (@wallywabash) about Pool C #d3fb selection possibilities tonight. @D3FBHuddle https://t.co/g82QRMamN2

— Frank Rossi (@FrankRossi) November 13, 2022

The committee will start with the top at-large team from each of the six regions on the board. 

For the sake of time, we put in three teams we all believe the committee will include among the five at-large teams, and that's UW-La Crosse, Bethel, and Wheaton. All three have strong resumes using the official Division III selection criteria of results against Division III opponents, Division III strength of schedule, results against regionally ranked opponents, head-to-head competition and results against common opponents.

Those are the only official criteria referenced. The D3football.com Top 25 is not considered.

When we get to the remaining two spots, we are considering the following teams: Stevenson from Region 1, Johns Hopkins from Region 2, Hardin-Simmons from Region 3, Albion from Region 4, Ripon from Region 5, and George Fox from Region 6. (We've already selected one team from Region 5 and two from Region 6.).

Of the teams now on the table, we’ll focus in on the teams with one loss. While Hardin-Simmons has been foiled again a bit by an underperforming ASC in the non-conference schedule, the Cowboys did the thing that prevented them from being selected last year -- namely, added a quality Division III opponent. Their win at UW-Platteville is indeed a win over a regionally ranked team and is the result that gets them into the field.

Bridgewater then comes to the table from Region 3, but we don’t see the Eagles as a factor. Of the remaining one loss teams, Albion has the strongest strength of schedule, but lack a win over a regionally ranked team. Johns Hopkins also lacks a win, but fared better against Susquehanna than Albion did against Alma. We know from our conversation with national committee chair J.J. Nekoloff that strengths of schedule are difficult to compare between teams that have one non-conference opportunity (like Johns Hopkins) and teams that have many (like Albion). Despite Albion’s advantage on paper, we believe Johns Hopkins will be selected as the last team in the field -- a decision consistent with the way previous committees have treated the Centennial Conference runner up in recent seasons.

Johns Hopkins, which has just one non-conference game it can schedule, and like all teams in 10-team conferences, will always have a strength of schedule near .500. Albion played the sixth place team in the HCAC, the seventh place team in the WIAC and the eighth place team in the CCIW (plus the HCAC No. 2 team) in its four-team non-conference schedule, and has plenty of opportunities to schedule even better going forward.

And here's how we would bracket them. We tried to mix teams within quadrants of the brackets whenever possible. If we had an extra flight or so, 

Click to enlarge or tap to download if on mobile:

Listen, we don't love Wheaton and UW-La Crosse playing in the first round, but with the geographic restrictions, and two MIAC, two WIAC and two CCIW teams, it's really hard to avoid having at least one matchup. And yes, let's send a team from the east coast to the west coast in the second round. It's been done before -- in fact, Cortland has done it before, and Linfield came to Wesley. 

North Central is our top overall seed, followed by Linfield, Trinity (Texas) and Ithaca. Yes, Ithaca, but Mount Union is the higest-ranked 2 seed in this projection and that is why they are in Ithaca's bracket. St. John's is a 2 seed, as is Delaware Valley and Wartburg. 

Here's the set of regional rankings we worked with. This includes the ranked teams in each region, although the committee likely has more in reserve in case a region runs out of them. Also, please keep in mind that although we use a shorthand to refer to results against regionally ranked opponents (RRO) and only list numbers of wins and losses against them, the process is more in-depth than that. 

Remember to keep an eye out for the official bracket announcement show. We'll have it for you at 5 p.m. ET.