Trinity (Conn.) athletics file photo

Week 3 backs off a bit on Top 25 matchups, but there's no shortage of great Division III football this weekend. Purple powers collide on Saturday as well as a pair of ranked conference favorites in Region 2. We also welcome the NESCAC to the 2023 season - our panel didn't miss that! Our Quick Hits crew is back to point out the week's big games, who's on upset alert, and who's breaking streaks in this week's six pack of questions. 

Our regular crew is Greg Thomas, Pat Coleman, Ryan Tipps, Frank Rossi, Logan Hansen, and Riley Zayas.

— Greg Thomas

Which game is the Game of the Week?

	Greg's take: No. 4 UW-Whitewater at No. 19 Mary Hardin-Baylor. The circumstances around this game are much different than we might have expected, but there’s no question that the result of showdown in Belton will be fascinating. UMHB found plenty of positives last week at Trinity, with quarterback Isaac Phe playing very well throughout most of the contest. The Warhawks are rolling, but are similarly testing the quarterback waters. Like Phe, Jason Ceniti performed well when pressed into action last week against St. John’s. Throw the records out the window- when these purple powers clash, it’s worth tuning in.
	Pat's take: No. 22 Susquehanna at No. 10 Cortland. This is a brand-new matchup of two teams whom have never met before (aside from in scrimmges) and is a good way to gauge the relative strength of the presumed top team in the Empire 8 and the Landmark Conference. Susquehanna's defense will have its hands full with Zac Boyes, Jaden AlfanoStJohn and the like. The River Hawks, on the other hand, have scored 51 points and six points in their two games this season, and expect this week to be somewhere in between.
	Ryan's take: No. 4 UW-Whitewater at No. 19 Mary Hardin-Baylor. These teams have seemingly gone in opposite directions the past two weeks, yet despite that, there's no question that there is still a ton of interest packed into this matchup.
	Frank's take: No. 4 UW-Whitewater at No. 19 Mary Hardin-Baylor. There’s no way around this pick this week, as UMHB facing their first 0-3 start in their 25-year program history is monumental, but they could derail a somewhat inconsistent Warhawks team in Belton.
	Logan's take: Two weeks ago, this should've been a no-brainer, given the way the UWW/UMHB game played out in 2022. But given UMHB's recent struggles, I'm going to zag here and go with Coe at Central in what should be a close game. Central is receiving votes in the Top 25 poll, and after a convincing win against UWEC last week, I had Coe just on the outside of my own ballot. Looking ahead to playoff selection, Central at 9-1 should have a Pool C case with a SOS that projects in the 0.520 range, but Coe will need to win the ARC, and likely this game, for a shot at the playoffs.
	Riley's take: No. 22 Susquehanna at No. 10 Cortland. Both teams are 2-0, though their Week 2 performances looked very different. Susquehanna won on a late field goal in a defensive battle over Brockport, 6-5. Cortland, meanwhile, unleashed its offensive attack in a 62-7 win at Lycoming. The defense that we saw from Susquehanna last week, allowing just seven total first downs, will clash with a Cortland offense that averages 52 points per game, and that is the big storyline here. If Susquehanna's defensive front, led by linebacker Garrett Carter, can keep in stride with Zac Boyes and the Red Dragon passing attack, we could see a very tight game play out in Central New York.

Which Top 25 team is most likely to be upset?

	Greg's take: No. 18 Bethel. In their season opener, Bethel managed just two points by way of a blocked extra point return. The Royals shuffled quarterbacks at halftime, and unfortunately lost top running David Geebli before halftime. The Royals have a lot of unanswered questions offensively heading in to a contest at UW-Eau Claire. The Blugolds are off to a 1-1 start. This wouldn’t be the first or most surprising upset of a ranked MIAC team we’ve seen the Blugolds pull off.
	Pat's take: None. I tried hard to make a case for Bethel (not sure if Eau Claire quarterback Harry Roubidoux will play), or UW-Oshkosh (a long trip, but ETBU had to rally to beat Hendrix and lost to the artist formerly known as Louisiana College). Not seeing it.
	Ryan's take: No. 20 Ithaca. Mostly because I'm still really unsure what to make of the Bombers after two weeks of games so far, and on paper, Alfred statistically matches up pretty evenly.
	Frank's take: No. 4 UW-Whitewater. From time to time, you know I pick a flyer here, and this is one such case. I watched UMHB in person Saturday and saw growth of a team that still has major size and speed. Isaac Phe is a very good quarterback. With this game in Belton, I feel like the Cru may have an edge and ability to turn the tables on UWW after last year’s matchup.
	Logan's take: I picked IWU over Wheaton as my preseason "most surprising upset," but after watching Wheaton play UWO last week, all of my concerns about their inexperience have vanished. Instead, I'm going to stick with my theme of picking Salisbury games every week, but this time, I'm picking them to upset No. 13 Johns Hopkins at home. The last time JHU faced Salisbury's offense in 2021, the Gulls racked up over 500 yards of offense, but struggled to finish drives. If Salisbury falls on the good side of variance this week, an upset can happen.
	Riley's take: There does not seem to be a ton of probable upsets in my opinion this week, but No. 17 John Carroll is on the road in a rivalry matchup. Sure, Baldwin Wallace is 1-1, but the Yellow Jackets seem to have made improvement after that Week 1 loss to Mount St. Joseph. Their balanced offensive attack could result in some big plays, but really, any chance of an upset comes down to the performance of the Baldwin Wallace defense and their ability to keep up. It hasn't exactly been a strong suit in either of the last two weeks. JCU comes off a bye week, and while that is beneficial for a number of reasons (particularly game-planning), it may take a few series for JCU to get back into rhythm in a game situation. That's why it'll be important that Baldwin Wallace takes charge early in order to contend in this one.

NESCACs excluded, will any team that hasn’t scored yet this season win?

	Greg's take: St. Vincent. The Bearcats got a tough draw to open this season facing PAC favorites Washington & Jefferson and Carnegie Mellon in the opening two weeks. Allegheny on the other hand has split their opening pair against Waynesburg and Geneva. St. Vincent should find some easier sledding against the Gator defense and send the homecoming crowd home happy.
	Pat's take: If a team gets in the end zone, but it's wiped out by lightning, does it make a sound? Yes, Chapman hasn't scored ... on a technicality. Picking them to defeat Whitworth.
	Ryan's take: Nope. I could see a couple of them finding the end zone this weekend, but a win? Nothing is lining up well for that.
	Frank's take: Chapman over Whitworth. At home, the Panthers should be able to win after scoring 24 in the now-canceled game vs. Pacific.
	Logan's take: Not only will St. Vincent score, they should win. My model says this looks like a 35-28 type of game in St. Vincent's favor. I think it'll be closer, and lower-scoring, than that.
	Riley's take: St. Vincent began the season by facing the PAC's two frontrunners for the league title, which resulted in back-to-back weeks of the Bearcats being shutout. But that streak ends this week against Allegheny. If St. Vincent reduces its turnover number, quarterback Austin Slye and the offense have a good chance of taking a positive step forward in front of a homecoming crowd.

Which under the radar game are you following?

	Greg's take: Pacific at Pomona-Pitzer. The Boxers and Sagehens have played two absolute bangers in the last two seasons. In 2021, Pacific stunned the home crowd in Claremont with a winning touchdown drive in the final minute. Last season in Forest Grove, Pacific shocked Pomona-Pitzer again, this time tying the game in the final seconds of regulation before Isaiah Pitre walked off with a game winning touchdown reception. I’ll be at Merritt Field Saturday night for part III of this exciting #SoCalSoLate series.
	Pat's take: I'll keep an eye on McDaniel at William Paterson. That's an interim coach in McDaniel's David Sartin, who took over late in the offseason, and Shaun Williams, who is in his second season at William Paterson. Last year's Pioneers started out 4-1 and finished 5-5, the program's first .500 finish since 2012.
	Ryan's take: Mount St. Joseph at Hope. With MSJ almost in the Top 25 and Hope showing that it can compete well, this game probably isn't all that far off many people's radars, but it's one worth highlighting and revisiting come Sunday.
	Frank's take: No. 23 UW-Oshkosh at East Texas Baptist. It may not seem to be an “under-the-radar” game based on the ranking, but not many folks are talking about this one. Oshkosh needs to rebound after a tough loss to Wheaton. ETBU needs to show consistency after a 24-point comeback almost was thwarted by Hendrix last week. I’m curious to see who walks away with momentum from this game.
	Logan's take: In some sense, all of the NESCAC's games are under the radar to the national audience, but Trinity and Tufts play in a game that could prove crucial in the conference race. Trinity are the defending champs, but Tufts returns the best quarterback in the conference, Michael Berluti (without his top target, who transferred to the University of Delaware). Trinity's D shut down Tufts for 3 quarters last season before a late surge made this a 26-23 game.
	Riley's take: Coe at Central. This marks the ARC opener for both programs, who enter Week 3 at a perfect 2-0. While it may not have the hype or attention that comes with a Top 25 matchup, it certainly has immense value for Coe and Central, who are each looking to challenge Wartburg in the ARC this season. This is Central's home opener, and I don't expect it to be decided by much more than a field goal. These two have been playing since 1925, and last year's matchup saw Coe pull out a 37-31 win. It'll be interesting to see if Central returns the favor.

Which long streak gets snapped this week?

	Greg's take: Thiel broke a long overall losing streak last year with a 27-26 win at Bethany. 27 also happens to be the number of games Thiel has played at home without a win- their last coming on Oct. 29, 2016. Bethany is in town this weekend and the Tomcats have a great opportunity to win on Alumni Field for the first time in 28 tries.
	Pat's take: Bowdoin. The Polar Bears have lost 33 consecutive road games and I give them a fighting chance this weekend at Hamilton. And also, NESCAC, welcome to the season.
	Ryan's take: The nine-game home winning streak of Trinity (Conn.) gets snapped in the opener against Tufts. Both teams lost a lot to graduation, but probably no unit was harder hit than Trinity's defense, of which its eight top tacklers were seniors last fall.
	Frank's take: Ursinus’s eight-game winning streak (at Rowan). Rowan played with passion at home vs. Stevenson on opening night of the season, showing that Ursinus may have a tough time coming out of Glassboro with a win. This would be a statement game for the Profs if they can win what should be a close, low-scoring game.
	Logan's take: This may be a popular pick, but I'm picking Buffalo State to snap their 26-game losing streak against Dean this week. You don't need to be that old to remember Buffalo State as consistently above average, regularly finishing in the 5-5 to 7-3 range, but in the last four seasons, they only have two total wins. The Bengals showed some fight against a pretty decent Apprentice squad last week, while Dean allowed 70 to Nichols in their last outing.
	Riley's take: Bowdoin has lost 33 straight road games dating back to Oct. 11, 2014 when they won at Hamilton. The Week 1 opponent for Bowdoin is...at Hamilton. With a fresh start to the season, this could be the game that turns the tide for the Polar Bears when it comes to road matchups, especially with a strong offense. Leading rusher Andre Eden, starting quarterback Andrew Boel, and top receiver Colton Fahey all return this season as seniors.

How many of Union, Grove City, and Maryville will make it to 3-0?

	Greg's take: One. All three are playing games that I see as relatively even, but with Maryville and Grove City on the road, I’m going to take the homesteading Garnet Chargers to be the only one of this trio to stay undefeated.
	Pat's take: Two. For the bonus half-point from Logan, I'll say Grove City and Maryville.
	Ryan's take: After thinking long and hard about it, I'm going with none.
	Frank's take: One. I have Union winning at home vs. Springfield, Case winning at home vs. Grove City, and Shenandoah winning at home vs. Maryville.
	Logan's take: Two. All three should be slight favorites this weekend, with Union the only one favored by more than a TD (-7.5), but the thing about slight favorites is that sometimes they lose. More likely than not, one of these three will lose. Union feels like the safest bet to win, but I don't feel overly confident about any of the three.
	Riley's take: Three. Maybe that is being too optimistic but I see all three as the favorites in their respective matchups. Union's defense isn't going to give Springfield an inch, and I expect Union to have the largest margin of victory of these three. All should be close, but Grove City and Maryville will play especially tight games, and ones that I anticipate being decided in the closing minutes of the fourth quarter.

Got picks? Put them in the comments!